Despite the high expectation of a democratic change of government, Venezuela’s future is uncertain. With all powers centralized and controlled under the command of Nicolás Maduro (including the National Electoral Council, analysts doubt that these elections will be truly free and transparent.
Content by Fiorella Agostini
Design by Alma Ríos
Translation by Diana Cid and Felipe Torres
On July 28, Venezuela will hold the presidential elections for the next term, a six-year period that goes from January 2025 to January 2031. Below, we will answer six questions about these elections, which could mark a before and after in the recent history of the South American country, ruled by chavismo since 1999.
1- Who are the main candidates in this election?
Nicolás Maduro: Chavismo’s candidate and president of Venezuela since 2013, after the death of Hugo Chávez. According to pollster Delphos, he has 24.6% of the voting intention.
Edmundo González: Is the representative of the opposition’s party coalition, and the replacement of the elected candidate Mara Corina Machado, who on September 16, 2021, was disqualified from exercising political functions by the General Comptroller of the Republic. In March 2024, she was denied registration in the National Electoral Council to participate in these presidential elections. According to Delphos, González has 51% of the voting intention.
2- What’s Venezuela’s current situation?
Since 2013, Venezuela has been in a political crisis under a regime of totalitarian practices such as suppression of free speech and censorship. The country is also experiencing an economic and humanitarian crisis that has led to rates of 82% poverty and 52% of extreme poverty, according to the UN. This has caused one of the largest migration flows in the world, with more than 7.7 million Venezuelans displaced, according to UNHCR data.
3- What has happened in previous elections?
2013 – Elections between Nicolás Maduro and Henrique Capriles. Nicolás Maduro won with a difference of more than 223 thousand votes (less than 1.5 points of advantage) boosted by the recent death of Hugo Chávez.
2018 – Elections between Nicolás Maduro and Henri Falcón. The opposition party called for abstention, considering the democratic guarantees for the presidential elections were not met. Voter turnout was only 46% and Nicolás Maduro obtained 67.82% of the votes. This process was not recognized by the opposition and several countries in the international community due to the lack of guarantees of voting rights.
4- Why could these elections represent a change in Venezuela’s recent history?
On one side, due to the Barbados agreement of October 17, 2023, in which both, representatives of the Venezuelan government and the opposition coalition, agreed to promote political rights and respect electoral guarantees in the 2024 presidential elections. This, in theory, would prevent a repeat of 2018’s election.
On the other hand, due to the popular support for opposition leader María Corina Machado (who swept the opposition primaries with more than 2.2 million votes), as well as her substitute and current presidential candidate, Edmundo González, who currently leads the polls.
Benigno Alarcón, director of the Center for Political and Government Studies at the University Católica Andrés Bello of Venezuela (UCAB), told CNN that “the result of the primary forced everyone to align, there is no doubt who is leading. People know that the opposition is winning, and that feeds enthusiasm. The fact that they have not disqualified the candidate yet, makes us think that we are closer to an opening.”
Finally, due to the unpopularity of President Nicolás Maduro. According to a poll carried out by Datanálisis, the rejection of Maduro’s government reached 85.1% in July 2019.
This formula could make this Sunday’s elections the first time in 25 years in which an opposition candidate in Venezuela has a real chance of winning.
However, despite the high expectation of a democratic change of government, Venezuela’s future is uncertain.
With all powers centralized and controlled under the command of Nicolás Maduro (including the National Electoral Council, the legislative branch, the army, the judicial system, and the official media), various analysts doubt that these elections will be truly free and transparent.
In addition, the government has already breached the Barbados agreement, mainly by ignoring the result of the opposition primary and maintaining the disqualification of María Corina Machado without taking into account the first point of the treaty, which was to recognize “the right of each political actor to select its candidate freely and according to its internal procedures.”
Furthermore, Nicolás Maduro recently warned that “if we want to avoid a bloodbath or a fratricidal civil war triggered by the fascists, then we must guarantee the biggest electoral victory ever”. This has created an atmosphere of tension in the country.
5- What are the possible scenarios for election day?
Voz de América consulted various experts who proposed the following scenarios:
Benigno Alarcón Deza pointed out that on Sunday “a political transition or a conflict due to electoral fraud” could occur.
According to political analyst Molina Galdi, there is a possible scenario in which the results are delayed, which “could indicate that there are negotiations underway to demand respect for what happened at the ballots”.
Moreover, the position of the Armed Forces is crucial for ensuring a safe electoral process and a peaceful transition. Analysts agree that their members expect the Government to respect the electoral process and the Constitution, as in the 2015 parliamentary elections.
Political scientist Piero Trepiccione clarified that the days and months following the election will have a climate of high political tension.
If the opposition wins and the result is recognized, Political Scientist Daniel Varnagy explains that “there should be a joint plan for an ethical and transparent transition.”
6- What is the international community’s position?
The UN and the Carter Center will be observers in the presidential election. However, the National Electoral Council revoked the invitation of the European Union observer mission, to which they responded in a statement that: “the Venezuelan people should be able to elect their president in credible, transparent, and competitive elections, supported by international observers.”
In the days leading up to the election, the international community is trying to get the parties to sign an agreement that guarantees respect for the voting outcome.
On Monday, Brazilian President Lula Da Silva stated, “I already told Maduro that the only way for Venezuela to return to normalcy is to have an electoral process respected by everyone. If Maduro wants to return Venezuela’s economic growth, the return of people who left the country, and the establishment of a state of economic growth, he must respect the democratic process.”
At the same time, former Argentine President, Alberto Fernández, echoed the Brazilian leader: “If he is defeated, what he has to do is accept it.” This led to his invitation as an election observer being revoked on the morning of July 24, the day he was scheduled to arrive in Venezuela.
